Are CS2 Cases Worth Opening in 2026? Odds and Math
As a way to make money, CS2 cases are usually not worth opening: about 4 in 5 drops are the lowest Mil-Spec tier, and the chance of a knife or gloves is about 0.26%. Most openings return an item worth less than the key you paid for. If you want a specific skin, buying it on a marketplace almost always costs less than opening cases until it drops. Open cases only for fun, with money you are ready to lose.
CS2 case odds by rarity
Valve has never published odds globally, but in 2017 it disclosed them for China through its publishing partner Perfect World, after Chinese rules required loot box odds to be published. These are the figures most sources still use:
| Rarity | Colour | Chance per opening |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | Blue | 79.92% |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% |
| Classified | Pink | 3.20% |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% |
| Rare special item (knife or gloves) | Gold | 0.26% |
The numbers add up to 100%. Valve has not confirmed that the same odds apply outside China, so treat them as the best public estimate, not a guarantee.
Two quick consequences:
- A gold item is about 1 in 385 openings on average (100 ÷ 0.26). That is an average, not a promise: you can open 1,000 cases without one.
- A Covert skin is about 1 in 156 openings.
What opening a case costs
Each opening needs a case and a key. The key is bought from Valve (in the US Steam store it costs $2.49, prices differ by region). The case itself is usually bought on the Market, and its price changes with demand: old, rare cases can cost much more than the key. Valve gets the key money every time, whatever drops.
How to calculate the expected value of a case
The expected value (EV) tells you how much one opening returns on average. You can work it out for any case in a few minutes:
- For each rarity tier, look up the current Market prices of all skins in that case and take a rough average. Include the different wear levels and StatTrak versions if you want a closer number.
- Multiply each tier's average by its chance from the table above.
- Add the results. That is the average value of one drop.
- Compare it with the cost of the key plus the case.
If the result is lower than the cost, the case loses money on average. Also remember that selling the drop on the Steam Market costs fees (5% Steam fee plus 10% CS2 fee, added to the price the buyer pays), so the cash you can actually get back is lower than the listed price.
So are cases worth it?
- For profit: generally no. The blue and purple drops that make up about 96% of openings are typically the cheapest items in a case. The rare hits that make cases look profitable in videos are exactly the 0.26% to 0.64% outcomes.
- For a specific skin: no. Buying the skin directly is cheaper than opening hundreds of cases on average.
- For fun: your call. Set a fixed budget in advance and treat it as spent. Do not chase losses with "one more" case.
Case opening is a form of gambling with random rewards. If you are under 18, or if opening cases stops being fun, do not do it.
FAQ
What are the odds of getting a knife in a CS2 case?
About 0.26% per opening according to the 2017 disclosure for China, or roughly 1 in 385 on average.
Are case odds better in some cases than others?
The published odds are per rarity tier and the same for weapon cases. What differs is the value of the items in each tier, which is why some cases have a higher expected value than others.
Do cheaper cases give better returns?
Not necessarily. A cheap case lowers the cost per opening, but the key price stays the same. Check the expected value with the method above.
Sources
- Odds published for China in 2017: summarised by Dot Esports and SteamDB
- Steam Support: Community Market FAQ (fees)
DaroSkin is a planned CS2 skin buyback with Litecoin payouts. It is not live yet and does not accept any items.